MRI-based automated machine learning model for preoperative identification of variant histology in muscle-invasive bladder carcinoma

Objectives: It is essential yet highly challenging to preoperatively diagnose variant histologies such as urothelial carcinoma with squamous differentiation (UC w/SD) from pure UC in patients with muscle-invasive bladder carcinoma (MIBC), as their treatment strategy varies significantly. We developed a non-invasive automated machine learning (AutoML) model to preoperatively differentiate UC w/SD from pure UC in patients with MIBC.

Methods: A total of 119 MIBC patients who underwent baseline bladder MRI were enrolled in this study, including 38 patients with UC w/SD and 81 patients with pure UC. These patients were randomly assigned to a training set or a test set (3:1). An AutoML model was built from the training set, using 13 selected radiomic features from T2-weighted imaging, semantic features (ADC values), and clinical features (tumor length, tumor stage, lymph node metastasis status), and subsequent ten-fold cross-validation was performed. A test set was used to validate the proposed model. The AUC of the ROC curve was then calculated for the model.

Results: This AutoML model enabled robust differentiation of UC w/SD and pure UC in patients with MIBC in both training set (ten-fold cross-validation AUC = 0.955, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.944-0.965) and test set (AUC = 0.932, 95% CI: 0.812-1.000).

Conclusion: The presented AutoML model, that incorporates the radiomic, semantic, and clinical features from baseline MRI, could be useful for preoperative differentiation of UC w/SD and pure UC.

Clinical relevance statement: This MRI-based automated machine learning (AutoML) study provides a non-invasive and low-cost preoperative prediction tool to identify the muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients with variant histology, which may serve as a useful tool for clinical decision-making.

Key points: • It is important to preoperatively diagnose variant histology from urothelial carcinoma in patients with muscle-invasive bladder carcinoma (MIBC), as their treatment strategy varies significantly. • An automated machine learning (AutoML) model based on baseline bladder MRI can identify the variant histology (squamous differentiation) from urothelial carcinoma preoperatively in patients with MIBC. • The developed AutoML model is a non-invasive and low-cost preoperative prediction tool, which may be useful for clinical decision-making.