Cold hardiness-informed budbreak reveals role of freezing temperatures and daily fluctuation in a chill accumulation model

Fundamental questions in bud dormancy remain, including what temperatures fulfill dormancy requirements (i.e. chill accumulation). Recent studies demonstrate freezing temperatures promote chill accumulation and cold hardiness influences time to budbreak-the phenotype used for dormancy evaluations. Here we evaluated bud cold hardiness and budbreak responses of grapevines (Vitis hybrids) throughout chill accumulation under three treatments: constant (5 °C), fluctuating (-3.5 to 6.5 °C daily), and field conditions (Madison, WI, USA). Chill treatments experiencing lower temperatures promoted greater gains in cold hardiness (field>fluctuating>constant). All treatments decreased observed time to budbreak with increased chill accumulation. However, perceived treatment effectiveness changed when time to budbreak was adjusted to remove cold acclimation effects. Among three classic chill models (North Carolina, Utah, and Dynamic), none was able to correctly describe adjusted time to budbreak responses to chill accumulation. Thus, a new model is proposed that expands the range of chill accumulation temperatures to include freezing temperatures and enhances chill accumulation under fluctuating temperature conditions. Most importantly, our analysis demonstrates that adjustments for uneven acclimation change the perceived effectiveness of chill treatments. Therefore, future work in bud dormancy would benefit from simultaneously evaluating cold hardiness.