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Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example.
Overton CE, Stage HB, Ahmad S, Curran-Sebastian J, Dark P, Das R, Fearon E, Felton T, Fyles M, Gent N, Hall I, House T, Lewkowicz H, Pang X, Pellis L, Sawko R, Ustianowski A, Vekaria B, Webb L. Overton CE, et al. Infect Dis Model. 2020 Jul 4;5:409-441. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.06.008. eCollection 2020. Infect Dis Model. 2020. PMID: 32691015 Free PMC article.
Outbreaks in care homes may lead to substantial disease burden if not mitigated.
Hall I, Lewkowicz H, Webb L, House T, Pellis L, Sedgwick J, Gent N; University of Manchester COVID-19 Modelling Group and the Public Health England Modelling Team. Hall I, et al. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2021 Jul 19;376(1829):20200269. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0269. Epub 2021 May 31. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2021. PMID: 34053256 Free PMC article.
Challenges in control of COVID-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions.
Pellis L, Scarabel F, Stage HB, Overton CE, Chappell LHK, Fearon E, Bennett E, Lythgoe KA, House TA, Hall I; University of Manchester COVID-19 Modelling Group. Pellis L, et al. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2021 Jul 19;376(1829):20200264. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0264. Epub 2021 May 31. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2021. PMID: 34053267 Free PMC article.
SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing: weighing the false positives against the costs of failing to control transmission.
Fearon E, Buchan IE, Das R, Davis EL, Fyles M, Hall I, Hollingsworth TD, House T, Jay C, Medley GF, Pellis L, Quilty BJ, Silva MEP, Stage HB, Wingfield T. Fearon E, et al. Lancet Respir Med. 2021 Jul;9(7):685-687. doi: 10.1016/S2213-2600(21)00234-4. Epub 2021 Jun 14. Lancet Respir Med. 2021. PMID: 34139150 Free PMC article. No abstract available.
EpiBeds: Data informed modelling of the COVID-19 hospital burden in England.
Overton CE, Pellis L, Stage HB, Scarabel F, Burton J, Fraser C, Hall I, House TA, Jewell C, Nurtay A, Pagani F, Lythgoe KA. Overton CE, et al. PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 Sep 6;18(9):e1010406. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010406. eCollection 2022 Sep. PLoS Comput Biol. 2022. PMID: 36067224 Free PMC article.
Estimation of reproduction numbers in real time: Conceptual and statistical challenges.
Pellis L, Birrell PJ, Blake J, Overton CE, Scarabel F, Stage HB, Brooks-Pollock E, Danon L, Hall I, House TA, Keeling MJ, Read JM; JUNIPER Consortium; De Angelis D. Pellis L, et al. J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 2022 Nov;185(Suppl 1):S112-S130. doi: 10.1111/rssa.12955. Epub 2022 Nov 22. J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 2022. PMID: 37063605 Free PMC article.
149 results