No therapy has been shown to reduce the risk of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) in patients with cirrhosis due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). The Surgical Procedures Eliminate Compensated Cirrhosis In Advancing Long-term (SPECCIAL) observational study compared the effects of metabolic surgery and nonsurgical treatment in patients with obesity and compensated histologically proven MASH-related cirrhosis. Using a doubly robust estimation methodology to balance key baseline characteristics between groups, the time-to-incident MALO was compared between 62 patients (68% female) who underwent metabolic surgery and 106 nonsurgical controls (71% female), with a mean follow-up of 10.0 ± 4.5 years. The 15 year cumulative incidence of MALO was 20.9% (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.5-35.9%) in the surgical group compared with 46.4% (95% CI, 25.6-61.3%) in the nonsurgical group, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.28 (95% CI, 0.12-0.64), P = 0.003. The 15 year cumulative incidence of decompensated cirrhosis was 15.6% (95% CI, 0-31.3%) in the surgical group compared with 30.7% (95% CI, 12.9-44.8%) in the nonsurgical group, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.20 (95% CI, 0.06-0.68), P = 0.01. Among patients with compensated MASH-related cirrhosis and obesity, metabolic surgery, compared with nonsurgical management, was associated with a significantly lower risk of incident MALO. In the absence of approved medical therapies for compensated MASH-related cirrhosis, metabolic surgery may represent a safe and effective therapeutic option to influence the trajectory of cirrhosis.
© 2025. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc.