Supply chain risk transmission monitoring based on graphic evaluation and review technique

Abstract

In the supply chain context, risk events can accumulate, amplify, and mutate as they spread through the supply chain network structure. This can lead to significant losses for supply chains and global businesses. Therefore, monitoring supply chain risk is crucial to ensure the smooth operation of the supply chain. To address this issue, our study focuses on the DongNan automobile manufacturing supply chain and examines the monitoring of lead time risk. We use the graphic evaluation and review technique (GERT) to characterize the topology of the risk transmission network in the supply chain and construct a supply chain risk transmission model. We then use the change-point control chart to monitor risk factors, specifically delayed lead time. Our study includes a case study that demonstrates the effectiveness of the change-point control chart in signaling and accurately estimating the change point and out-of-control stage in terms of performance indices. We also investigate the impact of mis-specified risk function parameters on the chart's performance, finding that it remains relatively stable. Overall, the change-point control chart is an effective tool for monitoring supply chain risk, and its monitoring effect is relatively stable.

Keywords: Change-point; Control chart; Delivery time; GERT; Risk factors.