The Disease and Economic Burden of HBV and HCV in Ethiopia

Abstract

As the second most populated country in Africa, Ethiopia needs public health measures to control diseases that impact its population. The goal of this study is to analyse disease burdens of HBV and HCV, while also highlighting their estimated associated costs for the country. A literature review and a Delphi process reflecting input of Ethiopian experts and the National Viral Hepatitis Technical Working Group were used to complement mathematical modelling to estimate HBV and HCV disease and economic burdens. Two scenarios were created for HCV: 2023 base and WHO elimination. For HBV, three scenarios were created: 2023 base, WHO elimination and universal birth dose. Using current country costs, each scenario was also examined through an economic lens. There were an estimated 7.6 million HBV infections in 2023. To impact transmission, a universal birth dose and pregnant women screening program would allow Ethiopia to vaccinate approximately 3.9 million infants annually, with a budget of $4.68 million USD, meeting the WHO prevalence elimination target (≤ 0.1% in ≤ 5-year-olds) by 2043. Ethiopia had an estimated 690,000 HCV infections in 2023. To achieve HCV elimination, the country would need to expand screening and treatment to 74,000 individuals annually with a peak budget of $12 million USD per year until 2032, decreasing to less than $2 million USD in 2035. Ethiopia can begin making steps towards elimination of HBV through expansion of birth dose vaccination. However, larger investments will be needed to scale-up treatment and diagnosis interventions for both diseases.

Keywords: Ethiopia; epidemiology; hepatitis B virus (HBV); hepatitis C virus (HCV); universal birth dose.