Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China

Licheng Wang; Yawen Liu; Lei Zhao; Xi Lu; Liangdian Huang; Yana Jin; Steven J Davis; Amir Aghakouchak; Xin Huang; Tong Zhu; Yue Qin

doi:10.1093/nsr/nwae424

Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China

Natl Sci Rev. 2024 Nov 25;12(1):nwae424. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwae424. eCollection 2025 Jan.

Authors

Licheng Wang^{1

2}, Yawen Liu³, Lei Zhao^{4

5}, Xi Lu⁶, Liangdian Huang^{1

2}, Yana Jin^{1

2}, Steven J Davis⁷, Amir Aghakouchak^{7

8}, Xin Huang³, Tong Zhu^{1

2}, Yue Qin^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
² Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
³ School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
⁴ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
⁵ National Center for Supercomputing Applications, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.
⁶ School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
⁷ Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
⁸ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.

Abstract

China's pursuit of carbon neutrality targets hinges on a profound shift towards low-carbon energy, primarily reliant on intermittent and variable, yet crucial, solar and wind power sources. In particular, low-solar-low-wind (LSLW) compound extremes present a critical yet largely ignored threat to the reliability of renewable electricity generation. While existing studies have largely evaluated the impacts of average climate-induced changes in renewable energy resources, comprehensive analyses of the compound extremes and, particularly, the underpinning dynamic mechanisms remain scarce. Here we show the dynamic evolution of compound LSLW extremes and their underlying mechanisms across China via coupling multi-model simulations with diagnostic analysis. Our results unveil a strong topographic dependence in the frequency of compound LSLW extremes, with a national average frequency of 16.4 (10th-90th percentile interval ranges from 5.3 to 32.6) days/yr, when renewable energy resources in eastern China are particularly compromised (∼80% lower than that under an average climate). We reveal a striking increase in the frequency of LSLW extremes, ranging from 12.4% under SSP126 to 60.2% under SSP370, primarily driven by both renewable energy resource declines and increasingly heavily-tailed distributions, resulting from weakened meridional temperature (pressure) gradient, increased frequency of extremely dense cloud cover and additional distinctive influence of increased aerosols under SSP370. Our study underscores the urgency of preparing for significantly heightened occurrences of LSLW events in a warmer future, emphasizing that such climate-induced compound LSLW extreme changes are not simply by chance, but rather projectable, thereby underscoring the need for proactive adaptation strategies. Such insights are crucial for countries navigating a similar transition towards renewable energy.

Keywords: climate change; compound energy droughts; renewable energy; solar energy; wind energy.