Background: Understanding protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection by vaccine and hybrid immunity is important for informing public health strategies as new variants emerge.
Methods: We analyzed data from three cohort studies spanning September 1, 2022-July 31, 2023, to estimate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19 among adults with and without prior infection in the United States. Participants collected weekly nasal swabs, irrespective of symptoms, annual blood draws, and completed periodic surveys, which included vaccination status and prior infection history. Swabs were tested molecularly for SARS-CoV-2. VE was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models for the hazard ratios of infections, adjusting for covariates. VE was calculated considering prior infection and recency of vaccination.
Results: Among 3,344 adults, adjusted VE of bivalent vaccine against infection was 37.2% (95% CI: 12.3-55.7%) within 7-59 days of vaccination and 21.1% (95% CI: -0.5-37.1%) within 60-179 days of vaccination compared to participants who were unvaccinated/received an original monovalent vaccine dose ≥180 days prior. Overall, adjusted VE of bivalent vaccine against infection, in conjunction with prior infection, was 62.2% (95% CI: 46.0-74.5%) within 7-179 days of vaccination and 39.4% (95% CI: 12.5-61.6%) ≥180 days compared to naïve participants who were unvaccinated/received a monovalent vaccine dose ≥180 days prior.
Conclusions: Adults with both prior infection and recent vaccination had high protection against infection and symptomatic illness. Recent vaccination alone provided moderate protection.
Keywords: COVID-19; hybrid immunity; vaccine effectiveness.
© The Author(s) 2025. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.