Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B mortality among Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 and predict the mortality trends from 2022 to 2027, providing reference for hepatitis B prevention and control efforts. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted using hepatitis B mortality data from 2006 to 2021 published by the Chinese Center For Disease Control And Prevention. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated based on the 2000 Chinese population as the standard population. The crude mortality rate (CMR) and ASMR were analyzed for temporal, regional, gender, and age distribution characteristics. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze trends, and the grey model was applied to predict CMR and ASMR from 2022 to 2027. Results: From 2006 to 2021, a total of 77 722 hepatitis B deaths were recorded, with an average CMR of 2.69/10 thousands and an ASMR of 2.00/10 thousands. The ASMR showed an overall decreasing trend for both males (AAPC=-5.4%, 95%CI: -8.1 to -2.7, P<0.001) and females (AAPC=-5.7%, 95%CI: -8.4 to -3.0, P<0.001). Declining trends were also observed in urban areas (AAPC=-5.0%, 95%CI: -7.7 to -2.2, P=0.001) and rural areas (AAPC=-5.7%, 95%CI: -9.0 to -2.4, P=0.001). Regional analysis indicated that the western, central, and eastern regions had average ASMRs of 2.86/10 thousands, 2.05/10 thousands, and 1.42/10 thousands, respectively, all showing downward trends. The grey model predicted that from 2022 to 2027, the CMR would decrease annually from 2.36/10 thousands to 2.03/10 thousands, while the ASMR would decline from 1.37/10 thousands to 1.04/10 thousands. Conclusions: Hepatitis B mortality rates in China, reflected by CMR and ASMR, have shown a consistent downward trend, indicating progress in hepatitis B prevention and control. Future efforts should prioritize targeted screening and preventive measures for rural populations, western regions, and males to further reduce mortality.
目的： 分析2006—2021年中国居民乙型肝炎死亡情况的流行病学特征，并预测2022—2027年的乙型肝炎死亡，为乙型肝炎防控工作提供参考。 方法： 回顾性收集来自中国疾病预防控制中心发表的2006—2021年的乙型肝炎死亡病例数据集，并以2000年的人口结构作为标准人口进行年龄的标化，计算乙型肝炎的粗死亡率（CMR）和年龄标化死亡率（ASMR），分析乙型肝炎死亡病例的地区、性别、年龄和时间的流行病学分布特征，采用Joinpoint回归分析模型分析变化趋势，并用灰色模型预测2022—2027年的乙型肝炎的CMR和ASMR。 结果： 2006—2021年因乙型肝炎的死亡人数共77 722例，平均CMR为2.69/10万，平均ASMR为2.00/10万；男性与女性的ASMR整体呈下降趋势，平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）分别为-5.4（95%CI：-8.1～-2.7，P<0.001）和-5.7（95%CI：-8.4～-3.0，P<0.001）；城市地区和农村地区的ASMR整体呈下降趋势，AAPC分别为-5.0（95%CI：-7.7～-2.2，P=0.001）和-5.7（95%CI：-9.0～-2.4，P=0.001）。2006—2021年中国西部、中部、东部地区乙型肝炎平均ASMR分别为2.86/10万、2.05/10万、1.42/10万，且整体均呈下降趋势。灰色模型预测结果显示，中国居民2022—2027年乙型肝炎CMR分别为2.36/10万、2.29/10万、2.22/10万、2.16/10万、2.10/10万和2.03/10万，ASMR分别为1.37/10万、1.30/10万、1.23/10万、1.16/10万、1.10/10万和1.04/10万。 结论： 中国居民的乙型肝炎CMR和ASMR逐年下降趋势，乙型肝炎的防治工作取得了进步。未来的工作重点和重心应加强农村、西部地区和男性人口乙型肝炎的筛查和防控，有针对性地制定防控措施，降低死亡率。.