Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the risk of obstructive coronary artery disease in rheumatoid arthritis patients based on LDL-C, Th17 cells, and IL-17

Abstract

Objective: This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting the risk of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), incorporating low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), Th17 cells, and interleukin (IL)-17 levels. The proposed model seeks to enable personalized cardiovascular risk assessment for RA patients, thereby optimizing clinical management strategies.

Methods: A total of 120 patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who were treated at the Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University between January 2019 and September 2023 were enrolled in this study. Based on coronary angiography results, patients were categorized into the RA-obstructive CAD group and the RA-non-obstructive CAD group. Additionally, 53 healthy controls (HC group) were included. Clinical characteristics, laboratory parameters, peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets, and cytokine levels were collected for analysis. Univariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors associated with RA-obstructive CAD. These variables were further refined using a random forest model for optimal selection. Finally, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed with the selected variables to develop a nomogram model, which was subsequently validated to assess its performance.

Results: Compared with the RA-non-obstructive CAD group, the RA-obstructive CAD group demonstrated significantly elevated levels of immune cell subsets, such as Th17 cells, and cytokines, including IL-17, IL-2, and IL-4, along with a reduction in Treg cells. (2) In the training cohort, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified LDL-C (OR = 0.04, P < 0.001), Th17 cells (OR = 0.76, P = 0.005), and IL-17 (OR = 0.75, P = 0.001) as independent risk factors for obstructive CAD in RA patients. Subsequently, a predictive nomogram model for RA-obstructive CAD risk was developed based on these indicators, incorporating LDL-C, Th17 cells, and IL-17.

Conclusion: This study developed a predictive nomogram for RA-obstructive CAD by combining traditional risk factors, such as LDL-C, with immune biomarkers Th17 and IL-17. The model demonstrated robust predictive accuracy, enabling more precise risk assessment of CAD in RA patients. It offers clinicians a valuable tool for advancing cardiovascular risk management in RA, underscoring its significant potential for clinical application.

Keywords: IL-17; LDL-C; Th17 cells; nomogram; obstructive coronary artery disease; rheumatoid arthritis.