Quantitative evaluation of the efficacy and safety of first-line systemic therapies for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Objectives: This study aimed to quantitatively evaluate the efficacy and safety of first-line systemic therapies for treating advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC).

Methods: The study included clinical trials of first-line systemic therapies for aHCC since the approval of sorafenib in 2007. Hazard function models were used to describe changes in overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) over time. Monte Carlo simulation was used to compare OS and PFS for different treatments, including sorafenib, antiangiogenic therapies (AATs) (except sorafenib), immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) monotherapy, AAT + targeted therapy, AAT + chemotherapy, AAT + ICIs, and ICIs + ICIs. Furthermore, the objective response rate (ORR) and incidence of grade ≥ 3 adverse events were analyzed.

Results: Fifty studies comprising 12,918 participants were included. AAT + ICIs demonstrated a significant benefit in median OS (mOS), median PFS (mPFS), and ORR (20.5 [95% CI 17.5-24] months, 7.5 [95% CI 6.5-8.8] months, and 24% [95% CI 17%-30%], respectively). ICIs + ICIs and ICI monotherapy ranked second and third, respectively with an mOS of 20 (95% CI 18.5-21.5) months and 14.5 (95% CI 13.5-16) months, respectively. The OS, PFS, and ORR of patients treated with AAT, AAT + targeted therapy, and AAT + chemotherapy were similar to those of patients treated with sorafenib. A higher proportion of patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage C had a shorter OS. OS was associated with publication year, and PFS was associated with the proportion of patients with BCLC stage C. The incidence of grade ≥ 3 adverse events in the ICIs and ICIs + ICIs treatment groups was low.

Conclusions: The study results provide valuable information from which to base rational clinical drug use and serves as a reliable external control for evaluating new treatments for aHCC.

Keywords: Advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC); Model-based meta-analysis (MBMA); Overall survival (OS); Progression-free survival (PFS); Systemic therapy.