The impact of meteorological conditions on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in different microclimatic zones of low-latitude mountainous areas

Abstract

Introduction: Epidemiological evidence suggests cerebrovascular disease (CVD) incidence is correlated to meteorological conditions. However, research on the primary meteorological factors influencing the incidence of CVD and their influence thresholds in low-latitude mountainous regions remains insufficient. We aimed to investigate the association between meteorological conditions and CVD occurrence in Guizhou province.

Methods: Utilizing daily incidence cases for CVD alongside concurrent meteorological data from four microclimate representative stations in Guizhou Province during 2021-2022, we firstly performed random forest and decision tree analysis to identify the significant meteorological factors influencing the incidence of CVD, and then we applied distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to assess the effect of meteorological factors on CVD incidence.

Results: Critical meteorological factors associated with CVD incidence include diurnal temperature range (DTR), temperature change between neighboring days (TCN), diurnal pressure range (DPR), pressure change between neighboring days (PCN), and minimum temperature. The risk of CVD incidence markedly increased with narrow DTR, positive TCN, and colder conditions. The thresholds of minimum temperature and TCN droped with the decrease of annual average temperature in microclimate zone. In the middle subtropical region of Jiangkou, the northern subtropical region of Xishui, and the warm temperate region of Shuicheng, there was a risk of CVD when the minimum temperature falled below 12.2°C, 10.7°C, and 6.7°C, respectively. When TCN exceeded the critical threshold (0.2°C in Shuicheng, 0.3°C in Xishui, and 0.4°C in Jiangkou and Ceheng), the risk of CVD incidence increased linearly. DPR and PCN displayed varied thresholds across different microclimate without consistent patterns. DPR in middle subtropical region of Jiangkou and warm temperate region of Shuicheng played a protective role, while the risk of the disease increased linearly when DPR was lower than 3.2 hPa and 2.7 hPa in south subtropical region of Ceheng and north subtropical region of Xishui, respectively. The short-term effects within 5 days with small DTR and narrow positive TCN were more obvious. The thresholds and lag times of other meteorological environmental factors remained indistinct in the four microclimate zones.

Discussion: Our findings delineated the common characteristics of the effect on the incidence of CVD of meteorological environments in various microclimate zones, and clarified the influence of minimum temperature and TCN exhibited spatial heterogeneity, Which may be assistance for meteorological risk forecasting in CVD prevention and control.

Keywords: cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases; distributed lag non-linear model; meteorological conditions; microclimate; temperature variation.