Objectives: Children younger than 5 years and women, especially pregnant women, are at high risk of malaria and death because of their weak immunity and exposure to mosquitoes. Several studies have considered only the age-structured model and other factors but have not considered sex. The objective of this work is to develop and analyze the malaria transmission model including this structure, to contribute to existing measures and mechanisms to eradicate malaria in Rwanda. Methods: A dynamic malaria transmission model considering age and sex structure was developed and analyzed. To study the dynamics of disease, the basic reproduction number was analytically computed and numerically estimated, and the normalized forward sensitivity index was used to highlight its sensitive parameters. Results: The most positive sensitive parameters in the model are the force of infection and the infection rates for vectors and female humans aged 5 years or older. The most negative sensitive parameters are the per capita death rates for vectors and humans. Conclusion: To control the spread of malaria in Rwanda, the biting and infection rates should be decreased. Therefore, women must comply with government measures against malaria and educate children about it.
Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Malaria; Stability and sensitivity analysis.
© 2024 The Author(s).