Glacial cycles during the Pleistocene had profound impacts on local environments and climatic conditions. In North America, some regions that currently support diverse biomes were entirely covered by ice sheets, while other regions were environmentally unsuitable for the organisms that live there now. Organisms that occupy these regions in the present day must have expanded or dispersed into these regions since the last glacial maximum, leading to the possibility that species with similar geographic distributions may show temporally concordant population size changes associated with these warming trends. We examined 17 lineages from 9 eastern North American snake species and species complexes to test for a signal of temporally concordant coexpansion using a machine learning approach. We found that the majority of lineages show population size increases towards the present, with evidence for coexpansion in five out of fourteen lineages, while expansion in others was idiosyncratic. We also examined relationships between genetic distance and current environmental predictors and showed that genomic responses to environmental predictors are not consistent among species. We, therefore, conclude that Pleistocene warming resulted in population size increases in most eastern North American snake species, but variation in environmental preferences and other species-specific traits results in variance in the exact timing of expansion.
Keywords: generalised dissimilarity modelling; machine learning; population genetics; range expansion.
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