Application of preoperative NLR-based prognostic model in predicting prognosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma following radical surgery

Abstract

Purpose: To investigate the application value of the neutrophil to lymphocyte count ratio (NLR) in the prognostic analysis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) after radical resection, and to offer guidance for the individualized perioperative diagnosis and treatment of ICC.

Methods: The clinical data of 360 patients diagnosed with ICC following radical surgery were retrospectively analyzed. The cut-off value of NLR was calculated using the minimum p-value method, and then divided into High-NLR (H-NLR) group and Low-NLR (L-NLR) group according to the NLR cut-off value. The prognostic value of NLR in ICC was analyzed. Subsequently, the patients were divided into the hepatolithiasis-related intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (HICC) group and the non-hepatolithiasis-related intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (NHICC) group based on whether they combined with hepatolithiasis. Multiple regression models were constructed based on NLR and clinicopathological indicators to verify the application value of prognostic models in the survival and recurrence of ICC patients after radical surgery.

Results: The cut-off value of NLR was 2.36, and the survival analysis disclosed that overall ICC patients with NLR ≥ 2.36 manifested a poor 5-year survival rate and a higher tumor recurrence rate (p < 0.001). In the HICC group, patients with H-NLR presented a poor 5-year survival rate and a higher tumor recurrence rate compared with L-NLR (p < 0.001). The NLR-based survival/recurrence prediction models in the HICC group demonstrated excellent predictive capacity (H-L test: 0.359/0.680, AUC: 0.764/0.791). In the NHICC group, patients with H-NLR exhibited a poor 5-year survival rate compared with L-NLR (p < 0.001), yet there was no significant difference in tumor recurrence between the two groups (p = 0.071). The NLR-based survival prediction model in the NHICC group demonstrated acceptable predictive ability (H-L test: 0.268, AUC: 0.729), while the NLR-based recurrence prediction model did not show an effective predictive ability (H-L test: 0.01, AUC: 0.649).

Conclusion: NLR is an independent risk factor influencing postoperative survival and recurrence in ICC patients, particularly in HICC patients. Preoperative NLR ≥ 2.36 suggests that patients might have a poor prognosis. The survival and recurrence prediction model constructed based on NLR and other clinical indicators demonstrates good prediction accuracy and can effectively predict the risk of postoperative adverse prognosis in patients with HICC. This study offers a novel idea for the clinical treatment of HICC patients.

Keywords: intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma; lymphocyte count ratio; prediction; prognostic model; radical surgery.