Potential distribution prediction of Pomacea canaliculata in China based on the Biomod2

Abstract

Pomacea canaliculata is a globally significant invasive species that poses substantial threats to agricultural production, ecosystems, and human health in China. To evaluate its habitat suitability in China, we collected and collated 741 county-level occurrence points of P. canaliculata in China through database query, literature search and news reports, and obtained the five most important climatic factors by variance inflation factor and Pearson correlation coefficient from 19 bioclimatic factors. We investigated the potential suitable distribution areas of P. canaliculata under current and future climate scenarios using the Biomod2 ensemble model, and identified the primary environmental variables influencing their distributions. The results showed that under the current climate, the suitable habitat areas were concentrated in southern provinces or municipalities, such as Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, and Yunnan. Under different climate scenarios in the future, the suitable habitat area would show large-scale expansion in the southern provinces or municipalities, and spread to the northern region. The most two important environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitat areas were precipitation of wettest month and mean temperature of wettest quarter. A combination model to predict the potential distribution of P. canaliculata under current and future climate conditions would help manage the risk of its invasion and spread, and provide a reference for relevant regions and departments to take active measures in advance to prevent the spread, monitor and mitigate its invasion.

Keywords: Pomacea canaliculata; biological invasion; climate change; prediction of suitable area.