Introduction: There is no established scoring model focused on viral hepatitis patients to predict the prognosis after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). We aimed to develop and validate a novel model based on the largest cohort for better prediction of both short-term (1 year) and long-term (3 years) postoperative prognoses after TIPS in viral hepatitis cirrhosis-related portal hypertension patients.
Methods: A total of 925 viral hepatitis cirrhosis-related portal hypertension patients who underwent TIPS from nine hospitals were divided into the training and external validation cohorts. A novel Viral-associated Index of Post-TIPS score (VIPs) model was developed after performing Cox regression analysis. The VIPs model was compared to five previous models, namely, Child-Pugh, MELD, ALBI, CCG, and FIPS. Furthermore, X-tile software was used to stratify patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups.
Results: The VIPs model included age, ascites, albumin, prothrombin time, total bilirubin, and sodium for post-TIPS prognosis prediction. The model demonstrated satisfying predictive efficiency in both discrimination and calibration, with an area under the curve of 0.781/0.774 (1 year/3 years) in the training cohort and 0.771/0.775 (1 year/3 years) in the external validation cohort, respectively.
Discussion: We first developed and externally validated a novel VIPs model for better prediction of both short-term and long-term postoperative prognoses after TIPS in Chinese patients with viral hepatitis cirrhosis-related portal hypertension.
Keywords: cirrhosis; model; mortality; portal hypertension; prognosis; viral hepatitis.
Copyright © 2024 Que, Wu, Lai, Wang, Mu, Yang, Xiong, Hu, Liu, An, Yu, Cao, Zhang, Luo, Wang, Chen, Liu, Zhang and Wen.