Introduction: Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) is known for its pro-inflammatory properties and association with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. However, existing detection methods for COVID-19 severity assessment often lack consideration of organs and tissues other than the lungs, which limits the accuracy and reliability of these predictive models.
Material and methods: The retrospective study included data from 515 COVID-19 patients (Cohort 1, n=415; Cohort 2, n=100) from two centers (Shanghai Public Health Center and Brazil Niteroi Hospital) between January 2020 and July 2020. Firstly, a three-stage EAT segmentation method was proposed by combining object detection and segmentation networks. Lung and EAT radiomics features were then extracted, and feature selection was performed. Finally, a hybrid model, based on seven machine learning models, was built for detecting COVID-19 severity. The hybrid model's performance and uncertainty were evaluated in both internal and external validation cohorts.
Results: For EAT extraction, the Dice similarity coefficients (DSC) of the two centers were 0.972 (±0.011) and 0.968 (±0.005), respectively. For severity detection, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of the hybrid model increased by 0.09 (p<0.001), 19.3 % (p<0.05), and 18.0 % (p<0.05) in the internal validation cohort, and by 0.06 (p<0.001), 18.0 % (p<0.05) and 18.0 % (p<0.05) in the external validation cohort, respectively. Uncertainty and radiomics features analysis confirmed the interpretability of increased certainty in case prediction after inclusion of EAT features.
Conclusion: This study proposed a novel three-stage EAT extraction method. We demonstrated that adding EAT radiomics features to a COVID-19 severity detection model results in increased accuracy and reduced uncertainty. The value of these features was also confirmed through feature importance ranking and visualization.