Steps to developing a DXA-based risk score for cardiovascular outcomes among older adults: the health, aging, and body composition study

Sci Rep. 2024 Oct 7;14(1):23311. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-74185-y.

Abstract

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major chronic disease worldwide and its risk factors have long been investigating in epidemiological studies. Our study aims to develop a body composition-based risk score and integrate it into the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) to improve CVD prediction among well-functioning older adults. We included 1882 older adults from the Health, Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) study to screen body composition variables obtained from the Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Three models were developed and compared: the 4-DXA model, the refit FRS, and the refit FRS plus 4-DXA model. C-statistics were 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59, 0.65) for the refit FRS, 0.58 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.61) for the 4-DXA model, and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.66) for the refit FRS plus 4-DXA model. Compared to the refit FRS, the refit FRS plus 4-DXA model slightly improved CVD outcome prediction as the discrimination slope, net reclassification index, and the integrated discrimination index were 0.053 (95% CI: 0.041, 0.066), 0.098 (95% CI = - 0.0033, 0.20) and 0.013 (95% CI: 0.0069-0.019). This study provides a model for more accurate risk stratification and draws more attention on DXA-based indices in the clinical setting. It also encourages further research in validating the developed risk score in more diverse population and in investigating a broader range of CVD risk factors.

Keywords: Body composition indices; Cardiovascular disease; Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry; Framingham risk score; Older adults.

MeSH terms

  • Absorptiometry, Photon*
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Aging
  • Body Composition*
  • Cardiovascular Diseases* / diagnostic imaging
  • Cardiovascular Diseases* / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Risk Assessment / methods
  • Risk Factors