Background: Global dengue cases are rising, notably in Brazil.
Methods: By using monthly data, we estimated linear regressions with ARIMA errors to measure the influence of temperature and precipitation on dengue incidence in the city of Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil.
Results: Findings suggest that a 1°C increase in mean temperature can lead to a cumulative increase of up to 40% in dengue incidence within 2 months. Precipitation shows no significant impact.
Conclusions: Results highlight the importance of temperature on the spread of dengue and potentially other mosquito-borne diseases.