Changes in the incidence and prevalence of systemic lupus erythematosus between 1990 and 2020: an observational study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)

Abstract

Objective: To obtain updated estimates on the incidence and prevalence of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the UK, over the period 1990-2020, using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study using the CPRD covering the period 1990-2020. A case ascertainment algorithm was developed in line with best practice recommendations for observational research. Incidence was calculated per 100 000 person-years and point prevalence (at the mid-year point) calculated per 100 000. Results were stratified by sex.

Results: 9443 SLE cases were identified. 5278 incident cases were identified (4538 women, 740 men). The overall incidence rate was 5.47 (95% CI 5.33 to 5.62) cases per 100 000 person-years. Incidence rates decreased slightly across the study period, which was more pronounced for women than men. Point prevalence increased over time, from 21.4 (95% CI 17.68 to 25.67) per 100 000 in 1990 to 107.14 (95% CI 103.26 to 111.12) per 100 000 in 2020.

Conclusions: The observed fivefold increase in prevalence of SLE over the last 30 years, in the context of a modest decline in incidence rate, may suggest improved outcomes in SLE and has important implications for healthcare service delivery and planning in the UK.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Incidence; Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic; Prevalence.