Objective: To recalculate the estimated fetal weight (EFW) based on ultrasound measurements in patients complicated with isolated polyhydramnios, using 14 current formulas to observe which formula better predicts the EFW.
Methods: This study examined pregnant women who gave birth in the hospital between January 2015 and January 2020. Maximum vertical pocket (MVP) was classified as, mild, moderate, and severe polyhydramnios, and the patients' measurements were reanalyzed using 14 formulas. The estimation of birth weight (EBW) alongside observed birth weight (OBW) facilitated the computation of statistical indices, namely the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) expressed as [(EBW - OBW)/OBW × 100], the mean percentage error (MPE) denoted as (EBW - OBW)/(OBW × 100), and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals.
Results: A total of 564 polyhydramnios patients were included in the study. When looking at the MAPE, the lowest rate (7.65) was found in the Hadlock 2 formula. Hadlock 1, Hadlock 3, and Shinozuka formulas demonstrated MAPE values most closely aligned with Hadlock 2. Weiner I and Thurnau were the formulas with the highest MAPE values. When the cut-off values for MAPE were taken as 10%, 4/14 of the formulas (Weiner I-II, Vintzleos and Thurnau) gave results above 10%. Among 14 formulas, 3 (21.4%) had positive (sonographic overestimation) (Hadlock 3, Shinozuka, and Vintzleos) and the other 11 (78.6%) had negative MPE (sonographic underestimation).
Conclusion: The Hadlock 2 formula had the lowest MAPE in predicting birth weight in patients with polyhydramnios, closely followed by the Hadlock 1, Hadlock 3, and Shinozuka formulas.
Keywords: fetal weight estimation; formula; mean absolute percentage error; polyhydramnios.
© 2024 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.