Timing decisions as the next frontier for collective intelligence

Abstract

The past decade has witnessed a growing interest in collective decision making, particularly the idea that groups can make more accurate decisions compared with individuals. However, nearly all research to date has focused on spatial decisions (e.g., food patches). Here, we highlight the equally important, but severely understudied, realm of temporal collective decision making (i.e., decisions about when to perform an action). We illustrate differences between temporal and spatial decisions, including the irreversibility of time, cost asymmetries, the speed-accuracy tradeoff, and game theoretic dynamics. Given these fundamental differences, temporal collective decision making likely requires different mechanisms to generate collective intelligence. Research focused on temporal decisions should lead to an expanded understanding of the adaptiveness and constraints of living in groups.

Keywords: collective behavior; collective intelligence; consensus; migration timing; temporal decision making; wisdom of crowds.