Performance of spleen stiffness measurement to rule out high-risk varices in patients with porto-sinusoidal vascular disorder

Abstract

Background and aims: Baveno VII consensus suggests that screening endoscopy can be spared in patients with compensated cirrhosis when spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is ≤40 kPa as they have a low probability of high-risk varices (HRV). Conversely, screening endoscopy is required in all patients with porto-sinusoidal vascular disorder (PSVD). This study aimed to evaluate the performance of SSM-VCTE to rule out HRV in patients with PSVD and signs of portal hypertension.

Approach and results: We retrospectively included patients with PSVD, ≥1 sign of portal hypertension, without a history of variceal bleeding, who underwent an SSM-VCTE within 2 years before or after an upper endoscopy in 21 VALDIG centers, divided into a derivation and a validation cohort. One hundred fifty-four patients were included in the derivation cohort; 43% had HRV. By multivariable logistic regression analysis, SSM-VCTE >40 kPa and serum bilirubin ≥1 mg/dL were associated with HRV. SSM-VCTE ≤40 kPa combined with bilirubin <1 mg/dL had a sensitivity of 96% to rule out HRV and could spare 38% of screening endoscopies, with 4% of HRV missed, and a 95% negative predictive value. In the validation cohort, including 155 patients, SSM combined with bilirubin could spare 21% of screening endoscopies, with 4% of HRV missed and a 94% negative predictive value.

Conclusions: This study gathering a total of 309 patients with PSVD showed that SSM-VCTE ≤40 kPa combined with bilirubin <1 mg/dL identifies patients with PSVD and portal hypertension with a probability of HRV <5%, in whom screening endoscopy can be spared.