Identifying high school risk factors that forecast heavy drinking onset in understudied young adults

Qingyu Zhao; Magdalini Paschali; Joseph Dehoney; Fiona C Baker; Massimiliano de Zambotti; Michael D De Bellis; David B Goldston; Kate B Nooner; Duncan B Clark; Beatriz Luna; Bonnie J Nagel; Sandra A Brown; Susan F Tapert; Sonja Eberson; Wesley K Thompson; Adolf Pfefferbaum; Edith V Sullivan; Kilian M Pohl

doi:10.1016/j.dcn.2024.101413

Identifying high school risk factors that forecast heavy drinking onset in understudied young adults

Dev Cogn Neurosci. 2024 Aug:68:101413. doi: 10.1016/j.dcn.2024.101413. Epub 2024 Jun 26.

Authors

Qingyu Zhao¹, Magdalini Paschali², Joseph Dehoney³, Fiona C Baker³, Massimiliano de Zambotti³, Michael D De Bellis⁴, David B Goldston⁴, Kate B Nooner⁵, Duncan B Clark⁶, Beatriz Luna⁶, Bonnie J Nagel⁷, Sandra A Brown⁸, Susan F Tapert⁹, Sonja Eberson⁹, Wesley K Thompson¹⁰, Adolf Pfefferbaum¹¹, Edith V Sullivan¹², Kilian M Pohl¹³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Radiology, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, NY, USA.
² Department of Radiology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
³ Center for Health Sciences, SRI International, Menlo Park, CA, USA.
⁴ Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA.
⁵ Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, USA.
⁶ Department of Psychiatry, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
⁷ Departments of Psychiatry and Behavioral Neuroscience, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, USA.
⁸ Department of Psychology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA; Department of Psychiatry, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
⁹ Department of Psychiatry, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
¹⁰ Laureate Institute for Brain Research, Tulsa, OK, USA.
¹¹ Center for Health Sciences, SRI International, Menlo Park, CA, USA; Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
¹² Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
¹³ Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. Electronic address: kilian.pohl@stanford.edu.

Abstract

Heavy alcohol drinking is a major, preventable problem that adversely impacts the physical and mental health of US young adults. Studies seeking drinking risk factors typically focus on young adults who enrolled in 4-year residential college programs (4YCP) even though most high school graduates join the workforce, military, or community colleges. We examined 106 of these understudied young adults (USYA) and 453 4YCPs from the National Consortium on Alcohol and NeuroDevelopment in Adolescence (NCANDA) by longitudinally following their drinking patterns for 8 years from adolescence to young adulthood. All participants were no-to-low drinkers during high school. Whereas 4YCP individuals were more likely to initiate heavy drinking during college years, USYA participants did so later. Using mental health metrics recorded during high school, machine learning forecasted individual-level risk for initiating heavy drinking after leaving high school. The risk factors differed between demographically matched USYA and 4YCP individuals and between sexes. Predictors for USYA drinkers were sexual abuse, physical abuse for girls, and extraversion for boys, whereas 4YCP drinkers were predicted by the ability to recognize facial emotion and, for boys, greater openness. Thus, alcohol prevention programs need to give special consideration to those joining the workforce, military, or community colleges, who make up the majority of this age group.

Keywords: Adolescence; Alcohol; College; Forecasting; Young adult.

MeSH terms

Adolescent
Adult
Alcohol Drinking* / epidemiology
Alcohol Drinking* / psychology
Female
Humans
Longitudinal Studies
Male
Risk Factors
Schools
Students / psychology
Underage Drinking / psychology
United States
Young Adult

Abstract

MeSH terms

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