Background: Surveillance recommendations for postoperative high-risk colorectal bone metastases patients remain in a gray area of guidelines. We aimed to develop a risk stratification system to select ideal candidates for follow-up of colorectal bone metastases status.
Methods: Postoperative colorectal cancer patients were included to develop a risk-scoring system to predict bone metastases. Risk scores were calculated based on the predictive factors for bone metastases, which were identified using the Cox proportional hazard regression model. Kaplan-Meier curves visualize the differences between risk groups.
Results: Eight risk factors (age, lymph node metastasis, pathologic tumor deposit, KRAS mutation status, suspicious retroperitoneal lymph node metastasis, lung metastasis status, largest thickness of colorectal cancer lesion, largest short diameter of lymph node) were predictors of colorectal bone metastases and incorporated into the risk scoring system, and the patients were categorized into 2 risk groups. In the low-risk group, the 1, 3, and 5-year colorectal bone metastases rates were 2.4%, 4.6%, and 3.7%, respectively, whereas in the high-risk group, the 1, 3, and 5-year colorectal bone metastases rates were 15.6%, 29.9%, and 44.4%, respectively. The risk scoring system exhibited a C-index of 0.706, 0.795, and 0.841 in 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier curve demonstrates that the incidence of colorectal bone metastases was higher in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group (50.5% vs 11.4%, P < .001).
Conclusion: This risk-scoring system may be valuable in predicting colorectal bone metastases in colorectal cancer patients, and we suggest that colorectal bone metastases status surveillance be added in the high-risk group.
Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.