Usefulness of pancreatic volume quantitative analysis as a predictor of development and severity of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis

Abstract

Background: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) is one of the most common and serious adverse events associated with ERCP. Thus, we aimed to investigate the usefulness of pre-ERCP pancreatic volume, which is deeply involved in exocrine pancreatic function, as a predictor of PEP development and severity.

Methods: In total, 1107 patients who underwent their first ERCP were recruited from January 2012 to December 2022 for this retrospective study. Pancreatic volume was measured by cross-sectional analysis using pre-ERCP computed tomography images. The potential risk factors for PEP were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression.

Results: Of the 745 patients included in the study, 34 (4.6 %) developed PEP: severe, moderate, or mild PEP in 1, 7, and 26 cases, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that only a large pancreatic volume (>70 cm³) was an independent risk factor for the development of PEP (odds ratio, 7.98; 95 % confidence interval, 11.80-67.50; P < 0.001). Additionally, the incidence of PEP was significantly higher in patients with a pancreatic volume >70 cm³ than in those with a pancreatic volume ≤70 cm³ (18.5 % [31/168] vs. 0.5 % [3/577]; P < 0.001). Also, the association between the pre-ERCP pancreatic volume and PEP severity was positively correlated (r = 0.625, P < 0.005), with a larger pancreatic volume corresponding to increased PEP severity.

Conclusions: A large pancreatic volume before ERCP may be a novel risk factor for PEP incidence and severity. This finding suggests that quantitative analysis of the pre-ERCP pancreatic volume could be a useful predictor of PEP.

Keywords: Adverse events; Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography; Pancreatic volume; Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis; Risk factor.