Exploration of underlying patterns among conflict, socioeconomic and political factors

PLoS One. 2024 May 31;19(5):e0304580. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0304580. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

The emergence of conflict is a complex issue with numerous drivers and interactions playing a role. Exploratory dimension-reduction techniques can reveal patterns of association in such complex data. In this study, an existing dataset was reanalyzed using factor analysis for mixed data to visualize the data in two-dimensional space to explore the conditions associated with high levels of conflict. The first dimension was strongly associated with resilience index, control of corruption, income, income inequality, and regime type, while the second dimension was strongly associated with oil production, regime type, conflict level, political terror level, and water stress. Hierarchical clustering from principal components was used to group the observations into five clusters. Country trajectories through the two-dimensional space provided examples of how movement in the first two dimensions reflected changes in conflict, political terror, regime type, and resilience index. These trajectories correspond to the evolution of themes in research on conflict, particularly in terms of considering the importance of climate or environmental variables in stimulating or sustaining conflict. Understanding conditions associated with high conflict can be helpful in guiding the development of future models for prediction and risk assessment.

MeSH terms

  • Cluster Analysis
  • Humans
  • Politics*
  • Socioeconomic Factors*

Grants and funding

The research reported here was supported by the Army Research Office/Army Research Laboratory under award W911NF1810267 (Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative). The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the official policies either expressed or implied of the Army Research Office or the U.S. Government. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.