Development and validation of nomograms to evaluate the survival outcome of HCC patients undergoing selective postoperative adjuvant TACE

Radiol Med. 2024 Apr;129(4):653-664. doi: 10.1007/s11547-024-01792-0. Epub 2024 Mar 21.

Abstract

Purpose: The objective of this study was to develop and validate a novel prognostic nomogram to evaluate the survival benefit of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE).

Materials and methods: Clinical data of HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy at four medical centers were retrospectively analyzed, including those who received PA-TACE and those who did not. These two categories of patients were randomly allocated to the development and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio.

Results: A total of 1505 HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy were included in this study, comprising 723 patients who did not receive PA-TACE and 782 patients who received PA-TACE. Among them, patients who received PA-TACE experienced more adverse events, although these events were mild and manageable (Grade 1-2, all p < 0.05). Nomograms were constructed and validated for patients with and without PA-TACE using independent predictors that influenced disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). These two nomograms had C-indices greater than 0.800 in the development cohort and exhibited good calibration and discrimination ability compared to six conventional HCC staging systems. Patients in the intermediate-to-high-risk group in the nomogram who received PA-TACE had higher DFS and OS (all p < 0.05). In addition, tumor recurrence was significantly controlled in the intermediate-to-high-risk group of patients who received PA-TACE, while there was no significant difference in the low-risk group of patients who received PA-TACE.

Conclusion: The nomograms were developed and validated based on large-scale clinical data and can serve as online decision-making tools to predict survival benefits from PA-TACE in different subgroups of patients.

Keywords: Hepatectomy; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Postoperative; Prognosis; Transarterial chemoembolization.

Publication types

  • Randomized Controlled Trial

MeSH terms

  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / pathology
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / surgery
  • Chemoembolization, Therapeutic*
  • Hepatectomy
  • Humans
  • Liver Neoplasms* / pathology
  • Liver Neoplasms* / surgery
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / pathology
  • Nomograms
  • Prognosis
  • Retrospective Studies