Benefit-risk assessment for the Novavax COVID-19 vaccine (NVX-CoV2373)

Abstract

A benefit-risk assessment of NVX-CoV2373, a vaccine to prevent COVID-19, was conducted to determine if the benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks of myocarditis/pericarditis. This analysis used data on myocarditis/pericarditis cases observed in the NVX-CoV2373 clinical studies, real-world data of mRNA COVID vaccine effectiveness against predominant SARS-CoV-2 strains in early 2023, and recent COVID-19 burden of disease data from the United States. The benefits of NVX-CoV2373 vaccination were estimated as the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths prevented. The risks of myocarditis/pericarditis cases and related hospitalizations and deaths occurring within 7 days of vaccination were also estimated. In our analysis, vaccination with NVX-CoV2373, per 100,000 vaccinated, resulted in an estimated 1805 COVID-19 cases prevented compared with an estimated 5.3 excess myocarditis/pericarditis cases. The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths prevented were also greater than vaccine-associated myocarditis/pericarditis hospitalizations and deaths. Our analysis indicates a positive benefit-risk balance for NVX-CoV2373.

Keywords: Benefit–risk; COVID-19; Myocarditis; Pericarditis; Vaccination.