Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 2): how to undertake an external validation study

BMJ. 2024 Jan 15:384:e074820. doi: 10.1136/bmj-2023-074820.

Abstract

External validation studies are an important but often neglected part of prediction model research. In this article, the second in a series on model evaluation, Riley and colleagues explain what an external validation study entails and describe the key steps involved, from establishing a high quality dataset to evaluating a model’s predictive performance and clinical usefulness.

MeSH terms

  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Prognosis