Stillbirths attributable to open fires and their geographic disparities in non-Western countries

Abstract

Due to global warming, an increased number of open fires is becoming a major contributor to PM_2.5 pollution and thus a threat to public health. However, the burden of stillbirths attributable to fire-sourced PM_2.5 is unknown. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is a co-occurrence of high baseline stillbirth rates and frequent firestorms, which may lead to a geographic disparity. Across 54 LMICs, we conducted a self-matched case-control study, making stillbirths comparable to the corresponding livebirths in terms of time-invariant characteristics (e.g., genetics) and duration of gestational exposure. We established a joint-exposure-response function (JERF) by simultaneously associating stillbirth with fire- and non-fire-sourced PM_2.5 concentrations, which were estimated by fusing multi-source data, such as chemical transport model simulations and satellite observations. During 2000-2014, 35,590 pregnancies were selected from multiple Demographic and Health Surveys. In each mother, a case of stillbirth was compared to her livebirth(s) based on gestational exposure to fire-sourced PM_2.5. We further applied the JERF to assess stillbirths attributable to fire-sourced PM_2.5 in 136 non-Western countries. The disparity was evaluated using the Gini index. The risk of stillbirth increased by 17.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6-35.7%) per 10 μg/m³ increase in fire-sourced PM_2.5. In 2014, referring to a minimum-risk exposure level of 10 μg/m³, total and fire-sourced PM_2.5 contributed to 922,860 (95% CI: 578,451-1,183,720) and 49,951 (95% CI: 3,634-92,629) stillbirths, of which 10% were clustered within the 6.4% and 0.6% highest-exposure pregnancies, respectively. The Gini index of stillbirths attributable to fire-sourced PM_2.5 was 0.65, much higher than for total PM_2.5 (0.28). Protecting pregnant women against PM_2.5 exposure during wildfires is critical to avoid stillbirths, as the burden of fire-associated stillbirths leads to a geographic disparity in maternal health.

Keywords: Fire-sourced PM(2.5); Geographic disparity; Gini index; Low- and middle-income countries; Stillbirths.