Abstract
Viruses evolve in infected host populations, and host population dynamics affect viral evolution. RNA viruses with a short duration of infection and a high peak viral load, such as SARS-CoV-2, are maintained in human populations. By contrast, RNA viruses characterized by a long infection duration and a low peak viral load (e.g., borna disease virus) can be maintained in nonhuman populations, and the process of the evolution of persistent viruses has rarely been explored. Here, using a multi-level modeling approach including both individual-level virus infection dynamics and population-scale transmission, we consider virus evolution based on the host environment, specifically, the effect of the contact history of infected hosts. We found that, with a highly dense contact history, viruses with a high virus production rate but low accuracy are likely to be optimal, resulting in a short infectious period with a high peak viral load. In contrast, with a low-density contact history, viral evolution is toward low virus production but high accuracy, resulting in long infection durations with low peak viral load. Our study sheds light on the origin of persistent viruses and why acute viral infections but not persistent virus infection tends to prevail in human society.
Copyright: © 2023 Sunagawa et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
MeSH terms
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Animals
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COVID-19*
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Humans
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SARS-CoV-2 / genetics
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Virus Diseases*
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Viruses* / genetics
Grants and funding
This study was supported in part by Grants-in-Aid for JSPS Scientific Research (KAKENHI) Scientific Research B 18KT0018 (to S.I.), 18H01139 (to S.I.), 16H04845 (to S.I.), Scientific Research in Innovative Areas 20H05042 (to S.I.), 19H04839 (to S.I.), 18H05103 (to S.I.), 21K15160 (to R.Y.), JP20H05682 (to K.T.), JP21K19909 (to K.T.); JSPS Overseas Research Fellowships (to R.Y.); ACT-X JPMJAX22AK (to R.Y.); AMED CREST 19gm1310002 (to S.I.); AMED Research Program on HIV/AIDS 19fk0410023s0101 (to S.I.); AMED Japan Program for Infectious Diseases Research and Infrastructure, 20wm0325007h0001, 20wm0325004s0201, 20wm0325012s0301, 20wm0325015s0301 (to S.I.); AMED Research Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases 19fk0108156h0001, 20fk0108140s0801 and 20fk0108413s0301 (to S.I.); AMED Program for Basic and Clinical Research on Hepatitis 19fk0210036h0502 (to S.I.); AMED Program on the Innovative Development and the Application of New Drugs for Hepatitis B 19fk0310114h0103 (to S.I.); Moonshot R&D Grant Number JPMJMS2021 (to S.I.) and JPMJMS2025 (to S.I.); JST MIRAI (to S.I.); Mitsui Life Social Welfare Foundation (to S.I.); Shin-Nihon of Advanced Medical Research (to S.I.); Suzuken Memorial Foundation (to S.I.); Life Science Foundation of Japan (to S.I.); SECOM Science and Technology Foundation (to S.I.); The Japan Prize Foundation (to S.I.), and Daiwa Securities Health Foundation (to S.I.). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.