Dose-response prediction for in-vitro drug combination datasets: a probabilistic approach

Abstract

In this paper we propose PIICM, a probabilistic framework for dose-response prediction in high-throughput drug combination datasets. PIICM utilizes a permutation invariant version of the intrinsic co-regionalization model for multi-output Gaussian process regression, to predict dose-response surfaces in untested drug combination experiments. Coupled with an observation model that incorporates experimental uncertainty, PIICM is able to learn from noisily observed cell-viability measurements in settings where the underlying dose-response experiments are of varying quality, utilize different experimental designs, and the resulting training dataset is sparsely observed. We show that the model can accurately predict dose-response in held out experiments, and the resulting function captures relevant features indicating synergistic interaction between drugs.

Keywords: Bayesian inference; Cell viability assay; Drug synergy; Gaussian process regression.