Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common children infectious disease caused by human enteroviruses. Most of the cases have minimal symptoms, however, some patients may develop serious neurological, cardiac complications, or even death. The pathological mechanism leading to severe HFMD is not clearly understood, and the immunological status of the individual patient may play an important role. Transcriptomes of peripheral blood mononuclear cells from EV71-infected patients (n = 45) and healthy controls (n = 36) were examined. Immune pathways were up-regulated in patients with mild disease symptoms (n = 11, M) compared to the healthy controls (n = 36, H), demonstrating an effective anti-viral response upon EV71 infection. However, in patients with severe symptoms (n = 23, S) as well as severe patients following treatment (n = 11, A), their innate and acquired immune pathways were down-regulated, indicating a global immunity suppression. Such immune suppression characteristics could thus provide an opportunity for early EV-71 infection prognosis prediction. Based on our cohort, an SVM model using RNA-seq expression levels of five genes (MCL1, ZBTB37, PLEKHM1P, IFNAR2 and YEATS2) was developed and achieved a high ROC-AUC (91·3%) in predicting severe HFMD. Meanwhile, qPCR fold-changes method was performed based three genes (MCL1, IFNAR2 and YEATS2) on additional cohort. This qPCR method achieved a ROC-AUC of 78.6% in predicting severe HFMD, which the patients could be distinguished in 2-3 h. Therefore, our models demonstrate the possibility of HFMD severity prediction based on the selected biomarkers that predict severe HFMD effectively.
Keywords: Hand food mouth disease; Innate and acquired immune response; Prognosis model; Transcriptome.
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