Background: Viral pathogens belonging to the order Bunyavirales pose a continuous background threat to global health, but the fact remains that they are usually neglected and their distribution is still ambiguously known. We aim to map the geographical distribution of Bunyavirales viruses and assess the environmental suitability and transmission risk of major Bunyavirales viruses in China.
Methods: We assembled data on all Bunyavirales viruses detected in humans, animals and vectors from multiple sources, to update distribution maps of them across China. In addition, we predicted environmental suitability at the 10 km × 10 km pixel level by applying boosted regression tree models for two important Bunyavirales viruses, including Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV). Based on model-projected risks and air travel volume, the imported risk of RVFV was also estimated from its endemic areas to the cities in China.
Results: Here we mapped all 89 species of Bunyavirales viruses in China from January 1951 to June 2021. Nineteen viruses were shown to infect humans, including ten species first reported as human infections. A total of 447,848 cases infected with Bunyavirales viruses were reported, and hantaviruses, Dabie bandavirus and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) had the severest disease burden. Model-predicted maps showed that Xinjiang and southwestern Yunnan had the highest environmental suitability for CCHFV occurrence, mainly related to Hyalomma asiaticum presence, while southern China had the highest environmental suitability for Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) transmission all year round, mainly driven by livestock density, mean precipitation in the previous month. We further identified three cities including Guangzhou, Beijing and Shanghai, with the highest imported risk of RVFV potentially from Egypt, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Kenya.
Conclusions: A variety of Bunyavirales viruses are widely distributed in China, and the two major neglected Bunyavirales viruses including CCHFV and RVFV, both have the potential for outbreaks in local areas of China. Our study can help to promote the understanding of risk distribution and disease burden of Bunyavirales viruses in China, and the risk maps of CCHFV and RVFV occurrence are crucial to the targeted surveillance and control, especially in seasons and locations at high risk.
Keywords: Bunyavirales; Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus; Ecological niche model; Rift Valley fever virus; Risk assessment.
© 2022. The Author(s).