Prediction reliability of QSAR models: an overview of various validation tools

Abstract

The reliability of any quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model depends on multiple aspects such as the accuracy of the input dataset, selection of significant descriptors, the appropriate splitting process of the dataset, statistical tools used, and most notably on the measures of validation. Validation, the most crucial step in QSAR model development, confirms the reliability of the developed QSAR models and the acceptability of each step in the model development. The present review deals with various validation tools that involve multiple techniques that improve the model quality and robustness. The double cross-validation tool helps in building improved quality models using different combinations of the same training set in an inner cross-validation loop. This exhaustive method is also integrated for small datasets (< 40 compounds) in another tool, namely the small dataset modeler tool. The main aim of QSAR researchers is to improve prediction quality by lowering the prediction errors for the query compounds. 'Intelligent' selection of multiple models and consensus predictions integrated in the intelligent consensus predictor tool were found to be more externally predictive than individual models. Furthermore, another tool called Prediction Reliability Indicator was explained to understand the quality of predictions for a true external set. This tool uses a composite scoring technique to identify query compounds as 'good' or 'moderate' or 'bad' predictions. We have also discussed a quantitative read-across tool which predicts a chemical response based on the similarity with structural analogues. The discussed tools are freely available from https://dtclab.webs.com/software-tools or http://teqip.jdvu.ac.in/QSAR_Tools/DTCLab/ and https://sites.google.com/jadavpuruniversity.in/dtc-lab-software/home (for read-across).

Keywords: Double cross-validation; Intelligent consensus prediction; QSAR; Read across; Small dataset modeling; Validation.