Machine learning for prediction of euploidy in human embryos: in search of the best-performing model and predictive features

Abstract

Objective: To assess the best-performing machine learning (ML) model and features to predict euploidy in human embryos.

Design: Retrospective cohort analysis.

Setting: Department for reproductive medicine in a university hospital.

Patient(s): One hundred twenty-eight infertile couples treated between January 2016 and December 2019. Demographic and clinical data and embryonic developmental and morphokinetic data from 539 embryos (45% euploid, 55% aneuploid) were analyzed.

Intervention(s): Random forest classifier (RFC), scikit-learn gradient boosting classifier, support vector machine, multivariate logistic regression, and naïve Bayes ML models were trained and used in 9 databases containing either 26 morphokinetic features (as absolute [A1] or interim [A2] times or combined [A3]) alone or plus 19 standard development features [B1, B2, and B3] with and without 40 demographic and clinical characteristics [C1, C2, and C3]. Feature selection and model retraining were executed for the best-performing combination of model and dataset.

Main outcome measure(s): The main outcome measures were overall accuracy, precision, recall or sensitivity, F1 score (the weighted average of precision and recall), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of ML models for each dataset. The secondary outcome measure was ranking of feature importance for the best-performing combination of model and dataset.

Result(s): The RFC model had the highest accuracy (71%) and AUC (0.75) when trained and used on dataset C1. The precision, recall or sensitivity, F1 score, and AUC were 66%, 86%, 75%, and 0.75, respectively. The accuracy, recall or sensitivity, and F1 score increased to 72%, 88%, and 76%, respectively, after feature selection and retraining. Morphokinetic features had the highest relative predictive weight.

Conclusion(s): The RFC model can predict euploidy with an acceptable accuracy (>70%) using a dataset including embryos' morphokinetics and standard embryonic development and subjects' demographic and clinical features.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence (AI); Time-lapse morphokinetics; assisted reproductive technology; machine learning (ML) models; preimplantation genetic testing (PGT).