Cardiovascular disease prediction model for Indonesian adult population with prediabetes and diabetes mellitus: The Bogor Cohort study of Noncommunicable Diseases Risk Factors

Abstract

Background and aims: This study aims to develop a predictive model of cardiovascular events in dysglycemia among the Indonesian adult population.

Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study conducted on subjects over 25 years in the "The Bogor Cohort Study of Noncommunicable Diseases Risk Factors" from 2011 to 2018. Data associated with age, gender, blood pressure, body mass index, waist circumference, blood glucose, cholesterol, smoking habits, family history of cardiovascular disease, and physical activity were obtained. Cardiovascular events in six years were observed; this included coronary heart disease, stroke, or all-cause cardiovascular mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine independent predictors of cardiovascular events.

Results: A total of 1085 subjects with prediabetes and diabetes mellitus were included in this study, with 73.5% female. The cumulative incidence of cardiovascular events in six years was 9.7%. Predictors of cardiovascular events were age ≥45 years (HR = 2.737; 95% CI 1.565-4.787) and hypertension (HR = 2.580; 95% CI 1.619-4.112).

Conclusions: Age ≥45 years and hypertension were predictors of cardiovascular events in six years among the adult Indonesian population with prediabetes and diabetes, necessitating targeted intervention among these subjects.

Keywords: Cardiovascular event; Diabetes mellitus; Dysglycemia; Prediabetes; Predictor.