Radiation-induced optic neuropathy (RION) is a rare side effect following radiation therapy involving the optic structures whose onset is, due to the low amount of available data, challenging to predict. We have analyzed a multi-institutional cohort including 289 skull-base cancer patients treated with proton therapy who all received >45 GyRBE to the optic apparatus. An overall incidence rate of 4.2% (12) was observed, with chordoma patients being at higher risk (5.8%) than chondrosarcoma patients (3.2%). Older age and arterial hypertension, tumor involvement, and repeated surgeries (>3) were found to be associated with RION. Based on bootstrapping and cross-validation, a NTCP model based on age and hypertension was determined to be the most robust, showing good classification ability (AUC-ROC 0.77) and calibration on our dataset. We suggest the application of this model with a threshold of 6% to segment patients into low and high-risk groups before treatment planning. However, further data and external validation are warranted before clinical application.
Keywords: NTCP; RION; chondrosarcoma; chordoma; normal tissue effects; optic toxicity; proton therapy; risk factors; skull base.