Objectives: This study was performed to internally derive and then validate risk score systems using preoperative and intraoperative variables to predict the occurrence of any-stage (stage 1, 2, 3) and stage-3 acute kidney injury (AKI) within seven days of cardiac surgery.
Design: Single-center, retrospective, observational study.
Setting: Single, large, tertiary care center.
Participants: Adult patients undergoing open cardiac surgery between January 1, 2012, and January 1, 2019.
Measurements and main results: The clinical data were divided into the following two groups: a derivation cohort (n = 43,799) and a validation cohort (n = 14,600). AKI was defined using the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the prediction models. The overall prevalence of any-stage AKI and stage-3 AKI after cardiac surgery were 34.3% and 1.7%, respectively. The discriminatory ability of the any-stage AKI prediction model measured with the area under the curve (AUC) was acceptable (AUC = 0.69, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.69), and the calibration measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was good (p = 0.95). The AUC for the stage-3 AKI prediction model was 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.83-0.85), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test also indicated a good calibration (p = 0.73).
Conclusions: This research study, which used preoperative and intraoperative variables, derived and internally validated two predictive scoring systems for any-stage AKI and stage-3 AKI as defined by modified Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria using a very large cohort of Chinese cardiac surgical patients.
Keywords: acute kidney injury; adult cardiac surgery; risk prediction score systems.
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