Smoking cessation in late life is associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality amongst oldest old people: a community-based prospective cohort study

Abstract

Objective: we aimed to investigate the association of smoking cessation with risk of all-cause mortality amongst oldest old people (aged ≥ 80 years).

Design: this was a prospective cohort study.

Setting: the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, implemented in 23 provinces of China.

Participants: a total of 28,643 community-dwelling oldest old people (mean age, 92.9 ± 7.5 years) were included.

Methods: in this community-based cohort study, Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association of smoking cessation with risk of all-cause mortality.

Results: during 136,585 person-years of follow-up from baseline to 1 September 2014, compared with never smokers, hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for all-cause mortality were 1.06 (1.02-1.10) for current smokers, 1.23 (1.09-1.39) for transient quitters (≤1 consecutive years since smoking cessation), 1.22 (1.12-1.32) for recent quitters (2-6 consecutive years since smoking cessation) and 1.11 (1.02-1.22) for long-term quitters (>6 consecutive years since smoking cessation). Cox models with penalised splines revealed an increased risk of all-cause mortality after smoking cessation; the highest mortality risk was observed within 2-4 years after smoking cessation and the risk gradually decreased with duration of smoking cessation. We further conducted subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses to reduce the impact of reverse causation.

Conclusions: smoking is harmful to health in all populations. Our study findings indicated smoking cessation in late life to be associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality amongst oldest old people who have smoked for a long time.

Keywords: cohort study; mortality; oldest old people; smoker; smoking cessation.