The Kaplan and Meier and the Nelson estimate for the probability of ulcer recurrence 10 and 15 years after parietal cell vagotomy

Ann Surg. 1988 Jan;207(1):1-3. doi: 10.1097/00000658-198801000-00001.

Abstract

The use of a nonparametric estimate from incomplete observations is demonstrated on ulcer recurrence 10-15 years after parietal cell vagotomy in 339 patients with duodenal ulcer. The median period of observation was 108 months (range: 1-197 months). Proven recurrent ulcer developed in 62 patients. The life-table method as described by Kaplan and Meier and Nelson's modification are demonstrated. The calculated risk of recurrence after 10 years was 23% (+/- 3.8%) and after 15 years was 27% (+/- 4.3%). The rate of recurrence seemed to decline toward the end of the trial time.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study

MeSH terms

  • Duodenal Ulcer / epidemiology*
  • Duodenal Ulcer / surgery
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Probability*
  • Recurrence
  • Registries
  • Risk Factors
  • Stomach Ulcer / epidemiology*
  • Stomach Ulcer / surgery
  • Time Factors
  • Vagotomy, Proximal Gastric*