Using Predicted Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk for Discrimination of Awake or Nocturnal Hypertension

Abstract

Background: Several atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk factors are associated with awake and nocturnal hypertension.

Methods: We assessed the association between a composite ASCVD risk score and awake or nocturnal hypertension using data from participants aged 40-79 years who completed ambulatory blood pressure monitoring at the Year 30 Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study exam in 2015-2016 (n = 716) and the baseline Jackson Heart Study exam in 2000-2004 (n = 770). Ten-year predicted ASCVD risk was calculated using the Pooled Cohort risk equations. Awake hypertension was defined as mean awake systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥135 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) ≥85 mm Hg and nocturnal hypertension was defined as mean asleep SBP ≥120 mm Hg or DBP ≥70 mm Hg.

Results: Among participants with a 10-year predicted ASCVD risk <5%, 5% to <7.5%, 7.5% to <10%, and ≥10%, the prevalence of awake or nocturnal hypertension as a composite outcome was 29.5%, 47.8%, 62.2%, and 69.7%, respectively. After multivariable adjustment, higher ASCVD risk was associated with higher prevalence ratios for awake or nocturnal hypertension among participants with clinic-measured SBP/DBP <130/85 mm Hg but not ≥130/85 mm Hg. The C-statistic for discriminating between participants with vs. without awake or nocturnal hypertension was 0.012 (95% confidence interval 0.003, 0.016) higher when comparing a model with ASCVD risk and clinic-measured blood pressure (BP) together vs. clinic-measured BP without ASCVD risk.

Conclusions: Using 10-year predicted ASCVD risk in conjunction with clinic BP improves discrimination between individuals with and without awake or nocturnal hypertension.

Keywords: Pooled Cohort risk equations; atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk; awake hypertension; blood pressure; hypertension; nocturnal hypertension.