Validation of Three European Risk Scores to Predict Long-Term Outcomes for Patients Receiving Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy in an Asian Population

Abstract

To validate externally and recalibrate three European risk scores for all-cause mortality and transplantation in patients receiving cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in an Asian population. Data were collected at our institution between January 2010 and December 2017. The primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and heart transplantation. Of the 506 patients who were followed for 2 years, 104 reached the primary endpoint. The Kaplan-Meier event-free survival analysis, stratified according to the three scores, yielded significant results (log-rank test, all P < 0.05), with a good fit between the predicted and observed event rates (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, all P > 0.05). The ScREEN score yielded the best discriminatory power for the primary endpoints compared with the VALID-CRT and EAARN scores. ScREEN was the best predictor of all-cause mortality and heart transplantation. Risk scores based on different populations should be selected cautiously. Graphical Abstract.

Keywords: Cardiac resynchronization therapy; Risk score model; Validation.