All-cause and cause-specific mortality in individuals with zero and minimal coronary artery calcium: A long-term, competing risk analysis in the Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium

Abstract

Background and aims: The long-term associations between zero, minimal coronary artery calcium (CAC) and cause-specific mortality are currently unknown, particularly after accounting for competing risks with other causes of death.

Methods: We evaluated 66,363 individuals from the CAC Consortium (mean age 54 years, 33% women), a multi-center, retrospective cohort study of asymptomatic individuals undergoing CAC scoring for clinical risk assessment. Baseline evaluations occurred between 1991 and 2010.

Results: Over a mean of 12 years of follow-up, individuals with CAC = 0 (45% prevalence, mean age 45 years) had stable low rates of coronary heart disease (CHD) death, cardiovascular disease (CVD) death (ranging 0.32 to 0.43 per 1000 person-years), and all-cause death (1.38-1.62 per 1000 person-years). Cancer was the predominant cause of death in this group, yet rates were also very low (0.47-0.79 per 1000 person-years). Compared to CAC = 0, individuals with CAC 1-10 had an increased multivariable-adjusted risk of CVD death only under age 40. Individuals with CAC>10 had multivariable-adjusted increased risks of CHD death, CVD death and all-cause death at all ages, and a higher proportion of CVD deaths.

Conclusions: CAC = 0 is a frequent finding among individuals undergoing CAC scanning for risk assessment and is associated with low rates of all-cause death at 12 years of follow-up. Our results support the emerging consensus that CAC = 0 represents a unique population with favorable all-cause prognosis who may be considered for more flexible treatment goals in primary prevention. Detection of any CAC in young adults could be used to trigger aggressive preventive interventions.

Keywords: Cancer; Cardiovascular disease; Competing risks; Coronary artery calcium; Mortality; Risk.