Postoperative atrial fibrillation is associated with higher scores on predictive indices

Abstract

Objective: To compare the performance of the CHADS VASc, POAF, and HATCH scoring systems to predict new-onset atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery.

Methods: We conducted a single-center cohort study, performing a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. The study included consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2016. The primary outcome was the development of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation during hospitalization.

Results: A total of 3113 patients underwent cardiac surgery during the study period: coronary artery bypass graft surgery (45%), valve replacement (24%), combined procedure (revascularization-valve surgery) (15%), and other procedures (16%). Twenty-one percent (n = 654) presented postoperative atrial fibrillation. Median scores in patients with postoperative atrial fibrillation were significantly higher (P < .001). The CHAD2DS2-VASc score demonstrated greater discriminative ability to predict the event (C-statistic, 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-0.79) versus the POAF score and the HATCH score (C-statistic, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.69-0.73 and C-statistic, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.67-0.72, respectively). All 3 scores presented good calibration according to the Hosmer-Lemeshow test univariate and multivariable analysis demonstrated that the 3 scores were independent predictors of postoperative atrial fibrillation: CHA2DS2-VASc score odds ratio 1.87 (95% CI, 1.64-2.13), POAF score odds ratio 1.18 (95% CI, 1.01-1.36), and HATCH score odds ratio 1.62 (95% CI, 1.37-1.92).

Conclusions: The POAF, CHA2DS2-VASc, and HATCH scoring systems showed good discrimination and calibration to predict postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Among them, the CHA2DS2-Vasc score presented the best discriminative ability for postoperative atrial fibrillation and has the advantage of being easy to calculate.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation; cardiac arrhythmia; cardiac surgical procedures; thoracic surgery.