Dynamically prognosticating patients with hepatocellular carcinoma through survival paths mapping based on time-series data

Nat Commun. 2018 Jun 8;9(1):2230. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-04633-7.

Abstract

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) always require routine surveillance and repeated treatment, which leads to accumulation of huge amount of clinical data. A predictive model utilizes the time-series data to facilitate dynamic prognosis prediction and treatment planning is warranted. Here we introduced an analytical approach, which converts the time-series data into a cascading survival map, in which each survival path bifurcates at fixed time interval depending on selected prognostic features by the Cox-based feature selection. We apply this approach in an intermediate-scale database of patients with BCLC stage B HCC and get a survival map consisting of 13 different survival paths, which is demonstrated to have superior or equal value than conventional staging systems in dynamic prognosis prediction from 3 to 12 months after initial diagnosis in derivation, internal testing, and multicentric testing cohorts. This methodology/model could facilitate dynamic prognosis prediction and treatment planning for patients with HCC in the future.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / pathology
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / therapy*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Liver Neoplasms / pathology
  • Liver Neoplasms / therapy*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care / methods*
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care / statistics & numerical data*
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Time Factors
  • Young Adult