Predicting the future is difficult, especially for evolutionary processes that are influenced by numerous unknown factors. Still, this is what is required of drug developers when they assess the risk of resistance arising against a new antibiotic candidate during preclinical development. In this Opinion article, we argue that the traditional procedures that are used for the prediction of antibiotic resistance today could be markedly improved by including a broader analysis of bacterial fitness, infection dynamics, horizontal gene transfer and other factors. This will lead to more informed preclinical decisions for continuing or discontinuing the development of drug candidates.