A preoperative score to predict early death after pancreatic cancer resection

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to develop and validate a preoperative prognostic model for death within one year post-surgery in patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

Methods: A derivation cohort study of 296 patients who underwent surgical resection of PDAC was prospectively enrolled in an observational study. Preoperative predictors of one year mortality were used to develop a risk score which was then validated in an external cohort of 182 patients with resectable PDAC.

Results: Seventy-eight out of 296 patients (26%) died within the first year. Preoperative independent predictors of one year mortality were: nutritional status (Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index, OR 2.23, 1.14-4.38; p=0.02), American Society of Anaesthesiologists' score (OR 2.56, 1.1-5.98; p=0.03), abdominal or back pain at presentation (OR 2.51, 1.05-5.9; p=0.038) and non metastatic liver disease as comorbidity (OR 4.5, 1.05-19.3; p=0.043). A score ranging from 0 to 7 points was developed. In the validation cohort, the model was able to predict early mortality (OR 7.1, 3.9-12.7; p<0.0001), with a predictive ability of 53.5% (Nagelkerke R²), an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 88.7% and an acceptable calibration (goodness-of-fit test, p=0.403).

Conclusions: Our new simple risk score proved reliable in forecasting one year mortality in patients with resectable PDAC.

Keywords: Early mortality; Pancreatic ductal carcinoma; Predictive score; Survival.